Sunday, March 22, 2009

Broadcom misfires -- this time

When Broadcom filed suit against Qualcomm last October, it was the latest attempt by the Orange County low cost chip producer to force Qualcomm to change its business model.

Qualcomm announced last week that the suit was dismissed by the US District Court. However, if I were still a Qualcomm shareholder, I’d still be a little worried.

The suit was an opportunistic effort to use the SCOTUS decision in Quanta v. LG as a cudgel. As USD Law Prof. David McGowan analyzed the Broadcom complaint in this blog last November
The complaint alleges Qualcomm double-dips by charging handset manufacturers a royalty on both chipsets and handsets. Qualcomm may earn chipset royalties through sales to handset manufacturers or from licenses to competing chipset manufacturers such as Broadcom. It also charges a royalty directly on handsets.

Broadcom claims the Quanta case holds that a patentee may not charge downstream royalties beyond the first sale of its technology. This claim implies Qualcomm may either charge handset manufacturers a royalty for the handset or for a chipset (directly from Qualcomm or indirectly from Broadcom) but not both. Broadcom is asking the court to declare that it need not pay royalties to Qualcomm when Broadcom sells chipsets to handset manufacturers who pay Qualcomm royalties on handsets.
Even for a law professor (who are generally cautious about predicting court outcomes), McGowan saw the case as too close to call:
It is hard to say what is likely to happen. Quanta dealt with an unconditional license and Qualcomm has said its licenses are expressly conditional. The Court did not rule on such licenses. The district court therefore is not bound to rule for Broadcom. If one read the Supreme Court as sending the signal that patentees should only be able to engage in one transaction per product, though, one could extend Quanta to reach the result Broadcom seeks.
There isn’t much coverage of the ruling online, of which the Telephony Online explanation is the most incomplete:
US District Court Judge William Hayes, however, rejected Broadcom’s reasoning, ruling that Broadcom provided no specific of exhausted patents and that the purported damages Qualcomm has wrecked upon the industry were too speculative.
So I’m no law professor and in fact never went to law school, but the case was clearly dismissed on procedural grounds, not on a question of law; Broadcom’s legal claim was never tested. To me this suggests that the Broadcom case was rushed to court, without bothering to document specific patents and to find a putative victim. Obviously we don’t know what happens within Broadcom’s legal team, but this seems like the sort of weakness that a first year associate could have spotted before the case was filed.

I don’t know the specifics of the ruling, so it’s not clear whether the complaint was dismissed with prejudice, and if so, whether it prevents Broadcom from ever filing another patent exhaustion claim again. Even if so, one of Qualcomm other rivals might want to pick up the cudgel.

Telephony Online noted that Nokia filed a similar complaint that was thrown out (but that was pre-Quanta.) Nokia and Qualcomm now claim to be friends, so perhaps for now Nokia will train its legal guns on InterDigital rather than Qualcomm.

But Qualcomm’s business model and market share leave no shortage of enemies. If not Broadcom or Nokia, another possibility is TI — which was the world’s largest supplier of wireless communications chips until Qualcomm passed it last year. Finally, there are the Koreans, who never stop complaining about CDMA royalties and (like Broadcom) have been looking for any possibility to reduce the checks they send to San Diego.

Thursday, February 19, 2009

QCOM: technical vs. fundamentals

Normally I don’t write about Qualcomm’s stock, but Qualcomm’s stock value got about the most prominent discussion possible on Thursday.

On his nightly CNBC show, retail stock pundit Jim Cramer spent several minutes Thursday night analyzing the last few months of momentum on Qualcomm’s stock, in his weekly segment called “Sell Block.” A written summary is provided on the Mad Money website (and also in a separate article).

He started by talking about Qualcomm’s fundamental business, including a simplified version of its business providing IPR and chips for cellphones. Cramer said: ”It reminds me of the old Intel inside ads. It should be Qualcomm inside.“

But the impetus for the discussion was a very negative report from technical analyst Helene Meisler. To briefly summarize
  • Any rise in Qualcomm’s stock price is blocked by its January peak.
  • The upward trends that started earlier this year has stalled.
  • When there is higher stock volume, the trend on those high volume days is “telling the truth,” and Qualcomm had some ugly down high-volume days.
  • The stock is heading down towards $30 and won’t break $40 again. (The stock closed at $33.84 Thursday).
Cramer, on the other hand, argues that the business fundamentals favor QCOM. It has been taking share against its rivals. It earns $4-$8/phone royalties (average phone price $200), with 90% margin. Worldwide 3G penetration to go from 40% to 70-80% over next 3 years. This week, Qualcomm even won cooperation from former archenemy Nokia.

Cramer was also not surprised by the lower CY 2009 earnings guidance that Qualcomm provided with last month’s earnings release. To Cramer (and to me), there is the implication that Qualcomm assumes that the economic recovery is pushed back at least to 2010 — a realistic assumption.

Cramer thinks it’s a good deal because it’s down from its $56 peak (last August 14). As Cramer said, “A lot of the bad news is baked in” praising its “pristine balance sheet.”

I don’t know which one is right, but I know they both can’t be right. If over the next 6 (or 12) months, the stock never breaks $40 and ends below $30, clearly Meisler. If it ends above $40, Cramer is right. If it just muddles along between $30 and $40, Meisler isn’t wrong, but that’s a pretty weak sell call — particularly if (as I expect) the broader market is sideways or down for the next 18-24 months.

Note: Cramer owns QCOM for his charitable trust. I do not own any shares.

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Qualcomm's other shoe

After 10 years in which Symbian never supported CDMA or any Qualcomm chipsets, why did Qualcomm join the Symbian Foundation last week? As the EE Times reports, the other shoe dropped this morning:
BARCELONA — Both ST-Ericsson and Qualcomm Inc. have revealed partnership programmes with Nokia based round reference platforms that will use the Symbian Foundation's software.

Qualcomm's deal focuses on developing UMTS mobile devices, initially for North America, that will be based on the S60 software on Symbian OS, running on the San Diego, California- based chip maker's latest MSM7xxx-series and MSM8xxx-series chipsets targeting wireless broadband.
…
The companies, for long arch rivals due to long standing patent infringement law suits that were finally settled last year, say the first mobile devices based on the collaboration would be expected to launch in mid-2010 and be compatible with the forthcoming Symbian Foundation platform.
Nokia currently has a very limited relationship with US carriers. “UMTS … for North America” means selling S60 smartphones either to AT&T or T-Mobile, competing for shelf space with the iPhone or gPhone respectively. Certainly, outside the US the Nokia smartphones are sold side-by-side with the iPhone by the same carriers.

EE Times plausibly argues that this cooperation is because Nokia last summer finally resolved its patent fight with Qualcomm. In November, analysts told EE Times they thought it unlikely that Nokia would go so far as to buy chips from Qualcomm.

It seems particularly odd that Nokia would start its partnership with Qualcomm with W-CDMA phones — given its sells hundreds of millions worldwide — but perhaps it is just trying to prime the pump. Presumably the next step is to use QCOM chips to sell more CDMA phones in the US, although so far Nokia is outsourcing that work to ODMs.

On a somewhat related note, Qualcomm CEO Paul Jacobs was quoted in Barcelona by CNBC as saying demand for smartphones remains strong. However, unlike his predecessor (Jacobs père), Jacobs fils is a perpetual optimist.